Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 20.908549 25.122102 29.751965 35.188773 41.369250 48.147663 56.114122
2025-09-14 14.272509 19.658991 26.189396 34.565795 44.893223 57.075734 72.389144
2025-09-21 11.088438 17.020879 24.779738 35.400449 49.267842 66.457753 89.043886
2025-09-28 8.124923 13.874197 21.960687 33.714790 49.868619 70.773356 99.290436
2025-10-05 6.821172 12.723105 21.527768 34.942087 54.111103 79.725077 115.636003
2025-10-12 5.727461 11.634745 20.952520 35.776556 57.716403 87.872862 131.169841
2025-10-19 4.824286 10.652896 20.350879 36.415771 60.966434 95.578638 146.330953
2025-10-26 4.147734 9.915041 20.000658 37.332733 64.587938 103.879084 162.555253
2025-11-02 3.376684 8.825594 18.891781 36.887659 66.053539 109.085293 174.567350
2025-11-09 2.837960 8.070042 18.238486 37.076891 68.435126 115.647841 188.668756
2025-11-16 2.331203 7.256003 17.350120 36.746382 69.913529 120.864434 200.936272
2025-11-23 1.842617 6.348108 16.137503 35.697715 70.103975 124.072158 210.288044
2025-11-30 1.570015 5.927520 15.894112 36.488224 73.588081 132.802211 228.688968
2025-12-07 1.224204 5.202342 14.908310 35.807401 74.556026 137.695908 241.587211
2025-12-14 1.042957 4.881973 14.742035 36.662497 78.206961 146.967505 261.466303
2025-12-21 0.754212 4.095553 13.358987 34.929817 77.109882 148.471734 269.296339
2025-12-28 0.660373 3.934373 13.440761 36.191253 81.492822 159.107321 291.769105
2026-01-04 0.563230 3.717013 13.341367 37.048788 85.157149 168.660212 312.782027
2026-01-11 0.473796 3.485756 13.162205 37.705590 88.461650 177.704879 333.217739
2026-01-18 0.406449 3.315780 13.117565 38.647663 92.347236 187.855566 355.702093
2026-01-25 0.314287 2.964474 12.489280 38.190418 93.467432 193.260888 370.571331
2026-02-01 0.253661 2.731790 12.159577 38.384829 95.865586 200.949142 389.376859
2026-02-08 0.194913 2.455942 11.633912 38.045271 97.150251 206.692733 405.074722